Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
