A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
